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The Aspen Institute
Wye River Conference Center
Queenstown, MD
June 6–2007

Sponsors

NEXTOR, the National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations
Research (with funding from the Joint Program Development Office)
George Mason University
University of California, Berkeley
University of Maryland

Administrative assistance courtesy of the Institute for Systems Research, University of Maryland

Organizers

Michael Ball, University of Maryland
Mark Hansen, University of California, Berkeley
Karla Hoffman, George Mason University

Background

Air transportation demand decreases starting in late 2001 relieved the earlier pressure on the world-wide airspace system and there seemed to be some reduction in the urgency for taking action to solve the “aviation problem”. Recent demand increases have provided a strong reminder that air transportation demand is rapidly approaching the capacity of the systems on which it is based. The Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act of December 2003 created a public/private partnership to carry out a broad range of activities whose ultimate goal is the development of a U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System. NextGen is intended to meet the air transportation needs of the U.S. in the 21st century – in particular, to accommodate growth in demand for air traffic services that may result in traffic volumes as large as two or three times today’s levels. In response, the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) was established to lead and coordinate the development of NextGen concepts and plans. The Europeans feel a similar urgency to drastically reform ATM systems and have established the Single European Sky initiative with goals similar to the JPDO.

This workshop will focus specifically on scarce airport capacity. Most would agree that overall runway capacity is the principal factor constraining future U.S. air transportation demand growth. Thus, it is important that this resource be put to its best use. Historically, runway capacity has been formally allocated in only four U.S. airports (Chicago’s O’Hare – ORD, Washington’s Reagan National – DCA and two New York airports: LaGuardia – LGA and Kennedy – JFK) through the so-called “High-Density Rule” (HDR). In fact, this rule was rescinded in 2002 for ORD and for LGA in January of 2007. In anticipation of the expiration of the HDR at LGA, NEXTOR carried out a research project that investigated a variety of measures for controlling congestion in place of the HDR. Among those considered were market-based approaches. In August of 2006, the FAA issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that addressed congestion management at LGA. Among other measures, it stipulated that the HDR slots be replaced with finite lifetime operating authorizations (OA’s) and also expressed the desire to explore the use of market mechanisms to reallocate OA’s after their expiration. This workshop will consider future congestion management alternatives in light of the NPRM, the reaction of the aviation community to it as well as recent research on this problem.

Program

Note: PowerPoint and PDF presentations are available for topics highlighted in red.

June 6, 2007

Afternoon

Congestion and Congestion Management in the U.S. Air Transportation System: Current Status and Historical Perspectives

Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation System
John Hansman, MIT

Airports: A Historic and Prospective View
Dick Marchi, Airports Council International

Managing Congestion Using Slots and Slot Exchange Markets

Airport Slot Management in Europe
Jaap de Wit, Airneth

History of the Slot Exchange Market in the US and Some Implications
Frank Berardino, GRA, Inc.

Discussion: The Secondary Markets for Slots in the U.S.: Is it working or Not?
Moderator: Michael Ball, University of Maryland
Discussants: Dan Kasper, LECG, LLC; Robert Land, Jetblue Airlines; Jeff Ogar, American Airlines; Julie Oettinger, United Airlines

June 7, 2007

Morning

Congestion Management Options and NAS Performance

Optimum Fleet Utilization under Congestion Management at NY LaGuardia Airport
George Donohue, George Mason University

How Over-Scheduling Affects Scheduled Block Times in Different Hub Airports
Itai Ater, Stanford University

Airport Operator Perspectives and Experiences
Thomas Bosco, The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
Flavio Leo, Massachusetts Port Authority
James Szczesniak, Department of Aviation, City of Chicago
Keith Wilschetz, San Diego County Regional Airport Authority
12:15 Lunch

Afternoon

Congestion Management in Highway Systems

Political Dimensions of Congestion Pricing: the Case of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge
Karen Frick, University of California, Berkeley

Expectations and Results from Congestion Pricing of Highways
Doug Lee, Volpe Transportation Systems Center

The Design of Secondary Markets for Slots

The Design of Secondary Markets
John Ledyard, California Institute of Technology

Discussion: How can the secondary market for slots in the U.S. be made more effective?
Moderator: Karla Hoffman, George Mason University
Discussants: Ed Faberman, Air Carrier Association of America
Mike Gallagher, Delta Airlines
Evan Kwerel, FCC
Pat Murphy, Gerchick Murphy Associates

June 8, 2007

Morning

Recent Research on Congestion Management Issues at LaGuardia Airport

Fleet Mix under Alternative Capacity Allocation Regimes: Recent Evidence
Mark Hansen, University of California, Berkeley

LaGuardia Airport Systems Operations Study: Impact of Airport System Operations in the Presence of Airline Aircraft Upgauging
Lance Sherry, George Mason University

Practical Alternatives for Congestion Management

Congestion Management Options: A Toolbox Approach
Michael Ball, University of Maryland

Discussion: If you had to fix the congestion problem, which option would you choose and why?
Moderator: Frank Berardino, GRA, Inc.
Discussants: Dave Berg, Air Transport Association
Steve Iverson, American Airlines
Bill Leber, Northwest Airlines
Bradley Rubinstein,
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
Steven Welman, Mitre, CAASD